Monday 16 March 2009

"Hull will be all right"



The post-match analysis on Match Of The Day - what little there was of it, given that we were the last game to be shown - focussed more on Newcastle United than it did on Hull City.

I'm happy with that, as all Alan Hansen needed to say about us was "Hull will be all right".

Then it was over to Alan Shearer to try to make excuses for the club that worships him, which he found difficult to do because nobody can make excuses for them, let alone an inarticulate pundit in a cardigan who Hull City fans will always associate with running scared from Justin Whittle.

We have nine games left, four of which are at home. There are still only four points between us and the bottom three, of course. Our goal difference is rubbish, but fortunately enough teams around or below us are enduring even rubbisher tallies in the for and against columns.

And there are five teams protecting us from that perilous trapdoor.

And they are starting to take shape.

West Bromwich Albion are down, irrespective of what they (don't) manage at West Ham United tonight. As admirable and gracious as Tony Mowbray is, his team are going only one way with no discernible defence.

Middlesbrough's ultra-late equaliser against Portsmouth - scored by Marlon King, who greeted his late goal for us against Middlesbrough with exaggerated glee - seemed to be greeted with similar hyperbole. Granted, a point is better than none, but such a listless display and the fact they are still three points adrift of safety means they should now be regarded as favourites to go down with the Baggies.

Despite their point, Newcastle United were atrocious at the KC Stadium. A world class strike force backed by a totally ineffectual, confidence-free, guileless midfield and a defence that has only one regularly decent protagonist. And they have to play Arsenal and Chelsea next.

They're my three to go down.

This means Stoke City and Portsmouth will probably stay up. I would struggle to find less entertainment value in consuming a bowl of Ronnie Corbett's pubic hair than watching football at the Britannia Stadium again next season, but their form at that very stadium has been good and should be enough. Good thing for them too, as they have still not won away from home. And signing James Beattie was a masterstroke.

Portsmouth shouldn't be where they are but fire sales caused by financial woes, plus an inability to select a reliable manager (either through talent or loyalty) have dragged them into it. A team with that central defensive pairing, that goalkeeper and Peter Crouch up front should drag themselves from it though.

Tottenham Hotspur are safe now, and Bolton Wanderers seem to be, like us, propping up a substantial enough number of teams to stay afloat. Sunderland also will benefit from this, despite clearly playing abysmally at the weekend, while Blackburn Rovers had two good wins - including one at ours - prior to an undisgraced pasting at Arsenal, and with Sam Allardyce in charge, their players wouldn't dare go down - unless they were Morten Gamst Pedersen, of course.

City go to Wigan Athletic next week, where away performances suggest a point is distinctly possible. There is a score - a 5-0 score, to be exact - to settle there too. After that it may be Portsmouth at home - we have to win again at some point, and this should be as good a time as any - although we'd still harbour hopes of postponing that match due to an FA Cup semi-final booking.

Then it's the two big north eastern jaunts in successive weeks to Middlesbrough and Sunderland. Hopefully, by the time Liverpool turn up at the KC at the end of April, enough will have been boxed off elsewhere for the Tigers to relax - and concentrate on the FA Cup final.

It really is that simple when you write it down. However, as a caveat to this wild spot of prediction, I am prepared to acknowledge that our penultimate game of the season at Bolton may be the one that keeps us up too. None of us are clairvoyant, so all angles and bases need to be covered...